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ITEM CA8

CABINET – 16 MAY 2006

SECONDARY SCHOOL PLACES AND FUTURE PROVISION

Report by Director for Children, Young People & Families

1. This report reviews the position regarding secondary school places in Oxfordshire and proposes strategies to cope with future demographic change, in the context of future central government funding to support the modernisation and development of the school estate. The report examines the various areas of the County in turn, identifying pressures and potential development options, and proposes consultation with a view to production of a strategic plan for secondary school provision in the County.

Background

2. The Authority receives earmarked capital funding from the DfES for "Basic Need" and for modernisation of its school estate. The Government expect local authorities to review their secondary school provision in the context of the Building Schools for the Future programme whereby significant additional funding will be made available to local authorities to renew their secondary school estates. Although, on the current timescale, Building Schools for the Future funding will not become available to Oxfordshire until 2016, authorities are expected to plan in anticipation of this funding, the financial modelling of which assumes a rationalisation of secondary schools.
3. As part of this process, the Council will need to continue maximising available resources, including appropriate capital receipts and developer contributions. The funding available for Basic Need is determined in part by an annual submission to the DfES which outlines the number of school places and surplus. From April 2006 Basic Need funding for new post-16 capital rests with the Learning & Skills Council. The aim of this approach is to provide a more strategic approach in order to secure rationalisation of funding across the post-16 sector. The Authority is currently seeking to establish stronger links with the Learning & Skills Council so that a joined up approach can be achieved. However, this approach will create further difficulties, for example, where new Basic Need facilities cater for the full 11-18 age range.
4. The current number on roll at Oxfordshire secondary schools is 37,802 on the basis of the Pupil Level Annual School Census (PLASC) 2006. The most recent secondary school forecasts produced in the summer of 2005 predicted a gradual fall in secondary school numbers to 36,875 up to 2011. There is some evidence that this fall could be offset by greater 6^th Form participation rates. The current forecasts do not identify additional pupils from housing allocations in Local Plans for which planning permission has not been obtained. The overall capacity of Oxfordshire’s secondary schools is 42,237, which represents 10.5% surplus places. This is close to the stated targets in the November 2004 School Organisation Plan, which aims for about 10% surplus places. There is currently only one school, Drayton, with more than 25% surplus places.
5. 37,300 houses are identified in the Oxfordshire Structure Plan 2016 to be built in the period 2001-2016 of which 8,294 were completed up to April 2005. A further 9,424 had planning permission and are included in the forecasts.
6. In addition to this the South East Plan, currently out to consultation, allocates further housing for the period 2016 to 2026, most significantly to Bicester, Didcot and Grove. A fall in primary school numbers is now evident but this will take some years to work through to the secondary sector. However, there are a number of local issues affecting secondary school pupil numbers and one of the major issues to be tackled is responding to growth from significant new housing areas in some parts of the County with a fall in numbers elsewhere.

Policy Context

7. The County Council has not adopted any policy changes regarding school structures apart from the re-organisation of Oxford City schools. There is a mixed picture across the County in that all secondary schools are comprehensive in terms of ability but within this there are 11-16 schools with a Tertiary College (south-east), 11-16 schools with a "mushroom" 6th Form structure accepting post-16 pupils from other schools (Banbury, Carterton, Didcot), some 11-18 schools and two single sex schools (Didcot). In terms of the appropriate size of school the Authority’s position is summarised in paragraph 77 of the School Organisation Plan 2004. "Whilst it is recognised by many within Education that a secondary school with 4 forms of entry (say 600, 11-16) is a minimum viable size (to give a good range of course options, breadth of staff expertise etc), in reality it is sometimes appropriate to support smaller schools in rural areas."
8. Two more recent policy changes from the Government will impact on the nature of secondary school organisation. Schools are now able to bring forward their own proposals to expand. Should they meet the criteria for being popular and successful then there is a presumption that their proposals will be supported by the School Organisation Committee. Likewise there are opportunities for successful 11-16 schools to expand and add 6^th Form provision. Legislation now also exists for any new secondary school or schools created from reorganisations or amalgamations to be subject to a competition to encourage other providers into the school system.
9. The Education and Inspections Bill will create new relationships between schools and local authorities. Schools that become Trust Schools will control their admissions, land, assets, admissions and will have freedom to issue their own proposals. However, the School Organisation Committee will be abolished and local authorities will determine all statutory notices but with a right of appeal to the Schools Adjudicator. Local authorities will be expected to have strategic plans that have been consulted on widely with parents and schools and will promote choice, diversity and what parents want. Once approved this would form the benchmark for publishing and determining all proposals. These plans will effectively replace the School Organisation Plan.

Managing Growth

Banbury & Bloxham

10. There are 4 secondary schools in this area of the County with 11-16 provision: Banbury School, Blessed George Napier Catholic School, Drayton School and The Warriner School. The first two have 6^th Form provision.

School	Number on roll	Surplus
Banbury	1500	370
Blessed George Napier	815	-46
Drayton	623	606
The Warriner	1112	53

11. There are currently 366 students in the 6^th Forms at Blessed George Napier and Banbury.
12. The proposals to create an Academy at Drayton School will provide 900 16-19 places and 250 post-16. This will potentially create 750 11-19 places in Banbury. A further 1900 houses need to be added to the forecast for Banbury for the period to 2016 and a further 1900 to 2026. The Drayton Academy proposals will essentially replace 300 11-16 places with post-16 provision. However, there are still potentially 600 surplus places at 11-16 in Banbury and this is likely to be enough to cater for the growth given the underlying demographic downturn. The oversupply of post-16 provision might provide some flexibility in the total number of places. The Warriner School is also in discussion with the Learning & Skills Council to see how it might provide some post-16 provision.

Bicester

13. There are a number of important issues underlying provision in Bicester. Only 25% of 16 year-olds transfer into the Bicester Community College (BCC) 6^th Form. Most of the 16 year-olds from the Cooper School do not move into local authority or FE provision. Similarly, only 85% of pupils from year 6 in primary schools transfer to the local secondary school and there is also some movement out of Bicester earlier than this. Despite significant housing growth in Bicester there are close to 500 surplus places in the schools. There continues, however, to be additional significant new housing growth within the schools’ catchment areas with developments at Upper Heyford and south west Bicester, among others, committing around another 3,400 houses to 2016. After 2016, a further 2,000 are proposed at Bicester.
14. If the current patterns of transfer were to continue then around 3000 places would be required. The current capacity of the two schools is about 2700 (BCC 1500, The Cooper School 1200). There is very little room for further expansion at The Cooper School but it may be feasible to expand BCC to around 1800. This is probably the maximum that could be accommodated on the school site and still provide sufficient team game playing fields. However, it may not be reasonable to plan for existing staying on and transfer rates. If the County average continuation rates into 6^th Form and 11+ transfer to secondary were to happen in Bicester then we would be looking to accommodate at least an additional 250-300 pupils.
15. Within the proposals for development of approximately 1500 houses in the south west of Bicester a site is currently being reserved for a secondary school. Oxford & Cherwell Valley College are also in negotiation with Cherwell District Council to secure a site potentially adjacent to any secondary school provision. Discussions are taking place with the schools as to the most appropriate way forward and a series of options are being considered, including whether it is possible to cope with growth on the existing sites, provision of a new school in the south west, or some kind of 14-19 vocational provision.
16. Given the current status of planning applications within the town, consultation on the options will need to be taken forward in the near future.

Didcot

17. Didcot Girls’ School and St Birinus School have rolls of 1215 and 1315. The sites and buildings are close to capacity but 4,200 houses are due to be provided in the town to 2016 and potentially 3000 beyond that. The forecast based on this demonstrate the long term need for the phased development of another education establishment and a site has been identified in the current planning application for Great Western Park to the west of Didcot.
18. A consultation on future secondary provision that took place in 2004 was based on the assumption of providing an 11-18 mixed comprehensive and providing 3 schools, each of 1450 pupils. Views were sought as to the possibility of the third being a church school. Because of the time that has elapsed a new consultation is required which will need to take on board the changed legislative context as outlined above. If there is to be a new 11-18 school then this would be open to competition. Similarly the government’s focus on appropriate curriculum and wider vocational curriculum at 14-19 offers the opportunity to look at different structures and provide purpose built vocational 6^th Form facilities on the third site, linked to the existing schools and working closely with Abingdon and Witney College. As with Bicester, detailed negotiations are taking place with developers.

Oxford

19. There are 6300 pupils on roll in Oxford City secondary schools.

School	Number on roll	Surplus
Peers Technology College	975	248
Oxford Community School	1151	131
Cheney	1428	29
The Cherwell	1740	-23
St Gregory the Great	942	308*

_* Assumes capacity of 1250 when new school is open (current capacity 1069).

20. Although the forecasts in summer 2005 showed a gradual fall in the number of pupils from 7000 to 6000, there are an additional 2,200 houses planned to 2016 and a further 2,500 proposed post 2016. It is likely that there will be some pressure on secondary school places in the City and there is no room for expansion at Cheney School or The Cherwell School. Site development plans are currently being developed at Peers School and Oxford School to demonstrate how both schools could accommodate up to 1450 pupils each.

Wantage/Grove

21. Capacity for King Alfred’s School & Community College is 2110 but with 313 places in temporary accommodation. The school currently has 1755 on roll but only 78% of the catchment area pupils go to King Alfred’s. Between 400 and 500 pupils attending the school live in Grove. The current intake is around 275-280 and it is the school’s aspiration to increase its intake to 300.
22. Members will be aware of the public consultation and opinion poll in 1973 into what the future provision might be for Wantage and Grove. This showed majority support for a two-school option. One of the drivers for looking at a series of options is not simply new provision at Grove but the educational issues arising from King Alfred’s occupying 3 sites. Pupils moving between sites and the management issue resulting from this still require a better solution for the school. It is planned to build 2,500 houses at the former Grove airfield, phased to be built to 2021 with potentially a further 1,400 planned at Wantage and Grove beyond 2016. The forecasts on the addition of this first tranche of 2500 houses produce the need to provide for around 2,000 pupils to 2016 and 2150 beyond this. These are much lower figures than were being used when the previous proposals were being discussed. The lower figures reflect lower generation rates from new housing and the underlying demographic fall.
23. Because of the ongoing issues of King Alfred’s operating on 3 sites and the lower pupil forecasts, it is now appropriate to review the options for secondary provision in Wantage and Grove. A consultation process is now under way by the developers regarding the new housing in Grove prior to planning application being submitted in the Autumn. It is now appropriate for a series of options on provision in Wantage and Grove to be re-visited and consulted on over the coming months.

Witney

24. 3000 houses are to be build in Witney between 2001-2016, of which 873 were completed by April 2005; a further 1163 have planning permission.

School	Number on roll	Surplus
Wood Green	1175	151
Henry Box	1357	28

25. Site development plans are being undertaken at both schools with the intention of providing accommodation for 1500 on both sites i.e. an additional 200 places. It is anticipated that this should provide enough accommodation within the town, given the underlying demographic fall, though the impact of 6^th Form growth needs to be monitored.

South East of the County

26. There is very little new housing growth in the south east of the County. There is likely to be a demographic decline in pupils, though Gillott’s, Langtree and Icknield remain stable with some out County pupils.

School	Number on roll	Surplus
Gillotts	896	76
Langtree	518	83
Icknield	624	87
Chiltern Edge	842	238

27. Numbers at Chiltern Edge School have fallen significantly in the last 3 years and currently only 20% of pupils attending are from Oxfordshire. It is expected that numbers could fall as low as 650. The current consultations on changes to transport policy may impact on this further. It is possible, as part of the contraction, to remove all the temporary accommodation at the school but this would still provide it with a capacity in excess of 950. Discussions have taken place with the school to look at its financial position and see whether a viable curriculum and financial plan can be produced for the declining number of pupils. In principle there is no reason why a smaller Chiltern Edge should not be viable, given the success of smaller schools in the area. The school could, however, be retained mainly for non-Oxfordshire pupils but the school would be susceptible to changes in parental preference in Reading, whilst closing a school of this size would be difficult and raise significant personnel and financial issues. All the Oxfordshire pupils could be accommodated in other Oxfordshire schools and a capital receipt and revenue savings would result. The situation will be kept under review.

Other areas

28. The Marlborough School, Woodstock is the only school in addition to The Cherwell School where the number of pupils exceeds the overall capacity, although a large proportion of pupils come from outside the area. The school does not want to cater for more pupils than it currently has and a site development plan is in preparation which will determine how additional accommodation can be provided.
29. Depending on the location of new housing there could be some further pressure on Wallingford School but the current site would be able to accommodate any additional growth. It is possible that other schools might come under further pressure, potentially Chipping Norton and Burford Schools, if there is continued 6^th Form growth.

Site Development Plans

30. There is an ongoing process of producing site development plans with schools. These plans are being developed in the context of Building Schools for the Future. Three site development plans have been completed and 9 others are at various stages within the process. The site development plans will enable schools and the Authority to plan their investment as funding becomes available. The plans should tie into any developing strategic plan.

RECOMMENDATION

31. The Cabinet is RECOMMENDED to:

1. authorise public consultation on options for growth and development in Bicester, Didcot and Wantage/Grove as indicated in the report;
2. ask officers to report back in due course on the outcome of the consultations and further analysis and development work, with a view to the production of a strategic plan for modernisation and development of secondary education provision in Oxfordshire.

KEITH BARTLEY
Director for Children, Young People & Families

Background papers: Nil

Contact officer: Michael Mill, Strategic Manager, Tel: 01865 816458

May 2006

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