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ITEM EX12

GTE FOR OXFORDSHIRE

Introduction

1. The purpose of this report is (i) to update the Executive on progress made on the Guided Transit Express (GTE) Project since the last report to County Councillors (Environmental Committee, June 2001); (ii) to set out the timetable for further work to be completed by the end of 2002/03 and the work programme for delivering the project; and (iii) to identify the funding requirements for this work and to seek further County Council funding support for GTE.

Background

2. The GTE project is the proposal to provide Oxford with guided busways alongside the railway corridor, to allow an express bus network to connect the city centre to key Park & Ride sites and surrounding towns (in particular the County’s growth towns). Two guided busways are proposed, linking Peartree Park & Ride to the city centre (the northern guideway) and Redbridge to the city centre (the southern guideway). It is envisaged that the two guideways would meet at Oxpens, where Oxford railway station could potentially be relocated. Detailed plans of the guideway alignment will be available at the meeting and a summary plan is attached as Annex 1.
3. The aim of GTE is to provide very high quality public transport facilitating direct journeys from surrounding towns into Oxford (without the need for interchange) and to support the growth and vitality of the city (for example the proposed extension of the Westgate shopping centre and redevelopment of the Oxpens area). GTE is a key scheme in the County Council’s future programme identified in the Local Transport Plan (LTP). GTE is also included in the first deposit draft of the Oxford City Local Plan Review, with the alignment identified on the proposals map.
4. GTE is being promoted by a public-private partnership, through a special Project Company set up in 1999. Oxfordshire County Council is one of the shareholders in this Project Company, which is chaired by Councillor Bill Bradshaw. Other partners include the City Council, rail and bus operators and retail and academic interests. All partners have contributed (either in the form of cash or in-kind work) to the development of the project to this stage and a full list of partners and their contributions is appended as Annex 2. This groundbreaking public/private partnership has not only raised funding for the project but has also provided GTE with unique links to key players in the transport industry and local groups (for example the Oxford Preservation Trust).
5. The Company has employed specialist consultants to work on the different strands of the project under the overall guidance of Project Managers, CJ Associates. A key milestone in the Project was the production of a detailed Feasibility Study for GTE in July 2001. The conclusions of this Study were that the project was viable in engineering and financial terms with alignments for the northern and southern guideways identified. The Study also set out the requirements for the next stage of work, Project Definition, which has been the focus of activity over the last year.
6. Subsequent to this, Marcus Lapthorn the former Oxford City Centre Manager, has been appointed as General Manager for the GTE project, to develop the public relations side of the project and act as a local point of contact for all parties interested in and affected by GTE.

Project Definition – Stage 1

7. A significant proportion of the further work outlined in last year’s report to Environmental Committee has been completed, despite the uncertainties surrounding the rail industry in general and the rail infrastructure requirements through Oxford in particular. Oxfordshire County Council has contributed £150,000 to the cost of this work. The main work areas are summarised below.
8. Northern Guideway: A preferred alignment for the northern guideway between the A34 and Bicester North junction has now been identified, between the railway and the Oxford canal.
9. Southern Guideway: The Feasibility Study identified an alignment predominantly to the west of the rail corridor, utilising spare railway land in the Hinksey sidings area. However, the disadvantage of this is that it would require the guideway to cross the railway on an elevated structure (with associated embankments/earthworks). Having crossed the railway, some GTE services (e.g. those serving Redbridge Park & Ride) would then need to cross back, using Old Abingdon Road. It is recognised that an alignment wholly to the east of the railway would overcome most of these difficulties; however, the current rail formation means there is insufficient space for a twin-track guideway within the rail corridor. The project’s engineering consultants Arup have therefore developed east and west options for the southern guideway. Their conclusion is that to achieve an eastern alignment, the rail formation would need to be slewed to the west and that within the overall width of the rail corridor this is feasible, even allowing for proposals to four-track the railway line through Oxford. To deliver this solution, a holistic approach to the rail corridor is needed, such that upgrading of the railway, renewal of signalling and provision of GTE are all planned and implemented together. The relocation of Oxford Station is also central to meeting these objectives. The cooperation of and close working with the Strategic Rail Authority (SRA) will therefore be required and discussions with them are ongoing. Arup’s report on the southern alignment has been placed in the Members’ Resource Centre and the Executive Summary of this report is appended as Annex 3.
10. Environmental Assessment: Those involved in the GTE project is determined to be transparent about environmental issues. An initial assessment by Oxford Brookes University was included in the Feasibility Study work and a full Environmental Assessment is now being undertaken. GTE has procured the services of leading consultants ERM for this work, following a selection process that involved the Oxford Preservation Trust and Brookes (demonstrating the strength of the partnership approach). As a first stage, ERM have produced and consulted upon a Scoping study setting out the framework for this Assessment and they are now starting work on a level 2 ecological survey. ERM have also been working closely with Arup on the development of options for the southern guideway, which have been assessed on environmental as well as engineering criteria. Their work is expected to be completed by the end of 2002.
11. Revenue and Patronage Forecasting: The Origin-Destination surveys undertaken in Oxford in November 2001 are being used to update the GTE patronage/revenue forecasting model. Specialist consultants the TAS Partnership has been engaged to undertake this work, which is expected to be completed this autumn.
12. Operational issues: Whilst no firm decisions have been taken, it is expected that the guideways will be open access, ie available for use by any bus operator provided that their vehicles are able to meet specified quality criteria, for example accessibility (low floor vehicles) and emissions (probably directly linked to the appropriate EURO engine standard). Ticketing systems and number of entry/exit points may also be included, depending on whether any intermediate stops are provided on the guideway (this issue is considered further below). The guideway would be constructed so that both double-deck and articulated buses could use it. Depending on project financing, an access charge for use of the guideway may be levied on operators.

Project Definition – Stage 2

13. Further work has been identified for the remainder of the 2002/03 financial year, to largely complete the Project Definition stage of GTE. These work areas are outlined below:
14. Refinement of alignment options: These will be developed in consultation with the rail industry, as outlined in paragraph 9 above. Specific aspects to be considered include the feasibility of providing one or more stopping points on the guideway. For example, a potential stop on the northern alignment in the Trap Grounds area has previously been identified. Without prejudicing this possibility, a key objective of GTE is to provide an express service into Oxford, and journey time savings (compared with current bus operations on radial routes) will be critical to making the business case for the project stack up. Any stopping points would therefore need to be off line to prevent queuing on the guideway, thus increasing land requirements. GTE stops in certain locations would also undermine commercially operated bus services in these areas.
15. Investigation of a potential southern extension of GTE alongside the southern bypass to the Heyford Hill roundabout/the Oxford Science Park: Funding for this work is being sought from developer contributions linked to the Science Park development, whose owners are a partner in the GTE Project Company. Expressions of interest in this work are currently being considered.
16. Assessment of the effects on GTE on travel patterns: This work includes an assessment of likely mode switch and quantifying the effects of GTE on the local bus and road networks. Expressions of interest in this work are currently being considered.
17. Consultation: Preliminary discussions have already been held with key groups (e.g. British Waterways). Detailed consultation is planned for early 2003, once certain key aspects of the project have been clarified (in particular, a preferred alignment for the southern guideway).
18. Public Relations: Under the guidance of the GTE General Manager, PR Agency Dickers MacDuff has been retained to work on this aspect of the project and a PR Strategy is currently being devised. Other key elements of this work include:

• Creation of a brand/identity so that the project is more easily recognisable and marketable;
• Development of a GTE Website (a family of addresses has already been registered);
• Production and distribution of a new brochure;
• Targeted meetings with interest groups, e.g. local residents’ associations;
• Briefings for Councillors, MPs and key agencies – for example GOSE/DfT.

19. Enhancement of railway infrastructure and services through Oxford: The interface of GTE with the railway is critical and represents the principal risk to the project. There are a number of projects proposed which will all affect GTE to some extent – within the timescale for GTE these include the proposed Station relocation, four tracking of the main line through Oxford and the East West Rail project. In the longer term, other projects such as the potential reopening of the Oxford-Princes Risborough line for passenger use will also need to be considered.
20. Potential future extensions: In addition to the Science Park, a further potential extension to GTE is along the A40 corridor (in view of the recent work on the Oxford – Witney - Brize Norton rail corridor, which identified the potential for guided bus as an alternative to heavy rail). I will be reporting on the review of the A40 Strategy – and how GTE fits in with this - at the 15 October meeting of the Executive. It is important that any proposals agreed as part of this strategy, such as a link road between the A40 and the A34/A44 (which could run parallel to the proposed GTE alignment) are developed with GTE in mind and priority for buses in this area maintained.
21. County Council Premium Routes Strategy: Proposals for (in particular) links between Oxford and Abingdon and for the north/south radials into Oxford that are being developed as part of this Strategy are being developed in partnership with the GTE Project.

Project Programme and Funding

22. 2002-03 Financial Year: The cost of Project Definition was estimated last year as up to £300,000. The contribution of £150,000 agreed by Environmental Committee in June 2001 has therefore met half this cost but this will only fund work until the end of October 2002. However, the Project Appraisal approved by Environmental Committee also included an allowance for a further £150,000 of County Council funding towards the project in 2002/03.
23. To allow development work on GTE to continue, I therefore propose to initially allocate £110,000 of funding from already-identified 2001/02 revenue underspends to GTE. It is currently predicted that these funds would run out at the end of December, with a further £30,000-40,000 required for the remainder of 2002/03. It is therefore proposed that I review the GTE work programme later in the year and, if necessary and if funding is available, identify up to a further £40,000 from within Environmental Services capital or revenue budgets to meet this shortfall, making up the total County contribution of £150,000 for 2002/03.
24. Beyond 2002/03: Annex 4 identifies the GTE Activity and Expenditure Programme from the 2003/04 financial year through to operation in 2008/09. The key milestones in the project are expected to be as follows:

• Project Definition completed by June 2003
• Project Authorisation (Transport & Works Act submission and Public Inquiry) 2003-06
• Procurement (Selection of Consortium to Construct/Maintain guideway) 2005-07
• Construction 2007/08
• Operation 2008/09.

25. The total cost of this work, excluding the capital costs of the guideway and associated traffic management and other infrastructure, is estimated to be £2.6 million (including a 20% contingency). This figure is consistent with the June 2001 Project Appraisal, which identified funding requirements of £2 million for authorisation and procurement, and included an indicative contribution of £500,000 from the County Council towards this cost (£250,000 of capital expenditure in each of the 2003/04 and 2004/05 financial years).
26. Of this £2.6 million, Annex 4 shows that approximately £1.8 million would be required to take GTE through to the end of the Project Authorisation Stage, covering the 2003/04 to 2005/06 financial years, with £0.8 million of this required for 2003/04.
27. Assuming that the County Council contribution of £0.5 million is confirmed, this still leaves a funding shortfall of about £1.3 million over these three years. Other than County Council funds, it is difficult to see where this shortfall could be found. Although the private sector has contributed significantly to the development of GTE so far (to the value of around £300,000) these contributors have not received anything for their money and the chances of securing additional funds from the existing partners must be regarded as slim. New partners may be attracted to join the Project Company and contribute – for example, Capital Shopping Centres (the developers of the Westgate extension) have expressed an interest, although this is only likely to be followed up if planning permission is granted for this development. Discussions with the SRA will also explore what, if any, funding they may be able to contribute.
28. In March 2002, the Government issued guidance to local authorities on preparatory costs for LTP Major Schemes. Whilst the government is prepared to contribute such funds, (subject to a bidding process and availability of funding in any given year), there are several ‘catches’, notably:

• Funding will only be granted after a scheme has been fully accepted - i.e. when it has passed all the Government’s appraisal tests, as well as passing through all necessary statutory and planning permissions;
• Only a maximum of 60% of the total eligible costs will be funded (up to a maximum of £850,000)
• Eligible costs are limited to detailed design and work on preparing the scheme appraisal for submission to the Government. They specifically exclude costs associated with preparation and completion of statutory procedures, e.g. public inquiry.

29. As a transport scheme, GTE might be viewed as the responsibility of the Highway Authority, with the burden of the development costs to be borne by the County Council. If this were agreed, then such costs would need to come from the revenue budget or the Single Capital Pot (SCP).
30. At this stage, it is proposed that approval in principle is given for the County Council to fund the £1.8 million required for GTE work through to the end of Project Authorisation (2005/06), with an initial allocation to the project of £800,000 to be made in 2003/04. A further £1 million would be identified in the Sustainable Transport budget (from SCP allocations) in 2004/05 and 2005/06 for major public transport schemes. This would be available for GTE should the project proceed. This funding commitment would be reviewed annually and allocated on the understanding that:

• further contributions to the project may be secured from the private sector that would reduce the public funding element required;
• some of these costs may be recoverable from central government if the project gets approved;
• any such funding spent on GTE could be lost if the project does not proceed.

31. I will be reporting to the 15 October meeting of the Executive on a full review of the transport capital programme for the period 2003/04 to 2005/06. Subject to the Executive’s decision on this report, I intend to include £800,000 in the proposed 2003/04 transport capital programme to fund the preparatory work for GTE. A report seeking a final decision on the detailed programme for 2003/04, including this £800,000 allocation, will be submitted in April 2003 after the SCP allocations are known and the overall capital programme has been agreed.
32. Previously, funding allocated to the project by the County Council has been granted to the Project Company using the County Council’s powers under the Local Government and Transport Acts, with this grant tied to conditions about how the money must be spent. However, should the funding identified in this report be agreed, in view of the significant increase in the level of County Council funding for the project, further consideration would need to be given to the mechanism by which it is spent and the control procedures required to achieve this. This would be the subject of a report to the Executive after the Capital Programme is considered in October.
33. As progress on GTE continues to be made, officer involvement in the project is likely to rise. Given the increasing pressures on transport planning staff (with, for example the expansion of the Integrated Transport Study programme to include Didcot, Henley and potentially Wantage / Grove), it is considered that responsibility for the project should move from Transport Planning to the Sustainable Transport (Special Projects) Group, who are responsible for other major public transport projects. An additional post would therefore be required in this Group to manage the GTE project and other public transport development work.
34. Scheme Implementation: The capital costs of the project are estimated at £15 million for the northern guideway, £7 million for the southern guideway (western alignment) and £9 million for the southern guideway (eastern alignment). These figures, which include a 20% contingency, suggest a total capital cost for GTE of £22-24 million. However, additional costs such as land acquisition and railway interfaces could add up to 50% to these figures, suggesting a potential cost of £33-36 million for the complete scheme.
35. It is likely that some form of public-private sector partnership package would be developed to fund GTE. However, the scheme costs are significantly less than some other comparable Rapid Transit projects, and it is therefore possible that the Government might consider funding the project in its entirety, for example as a Major Scheme submission in the next (2006-2011) LTP. Further discussions would need to take place with GOSE and the Department for Transport to establish the most likely scenario.

Conclusions

36. Significant progress has been made on the GTE project. The alignment has been refined and costs updated, a detailed Environmental Study is well underway, the Business Case is being updated and a General Manager has been appointed to spearhead the project locally. GTE is still very much viewed as viable.
37. Work Programmes have been identified for taking GTE forward in the short term (2002/03) and medium term (2003-08) and the funding requirements of these specified. Beyond the current financial year, the funding commitments required to deliver the project are very significant and, should the County Council agree to bear all or most of these, would require a significant funding commitment from either revenue or SCP funds.
38. To deliver GTE, a holistic approach is required for the north-south rail corridor through Oxford in particular. The opportunity exists for this corridor to be comprehensively redeveloped to the benefit of both rail and GTE whilst maximising integration and minimising costs.

Environmental Implications

39. The essence of GTE remains provision of a very high quality public transport corridor improvement that will provide a genuine alternative to car travel and therefore encourage mode switch in line with LTP objectives, thus benefiting the environment.
40. The full environmental implications of GTE are currently being assessed by the Project’s consultants and the conclusions of their work should be available later in the year.

Financial and Staff Implications

41. Oxfordshire County Council transport funding is required to continue to progress the project, potentially to a very significant level as identified in paragraphs 24 to 32 of this report.
42. Additional officer resources will need to be secured to help deliver the project, as identified in paragraph 33 of this report. It is proposed that this post should be funded from the capital programme, up to a maximum of £40,000 per annum including overheads.

RECOMMENDATIONS

43. The Executive is RECOMMENDED to:

1. agree in principle that the County Council will fund GTE work through to the end of the project authorisation phase in 2005/06;
2. ask the Director of Environmental Services to include the sum of £800,000 in 2003/04 for GTE Project Development and Authorisation in the review of the Transport Capital Programme to take place on 15 October and identify the appropriate budgetary provision for GTE in 2004/05 and 2005/06;
3. approve the creation of an additional post within Transport Development to manage GTE and other public transport development projects, funded from the capital programme.

DAVID YOUNG
Director of Environmental Services

Background papers: Feasibility Study (CJ Associates, July 2001), Options for Southern alignment (Arup, June 2002)

Contact Officer: John Disley Tel: Oxford 810460

25 September 2002

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