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ITEM EX5 - ANNEX A

EXECUTIVE - 1 OCTOBER 2002

DRAFT BUDGET STRATEGY AND MEDIUM TERM FINANCIAL FORECAST

Budget Requirement 2003/04 (£m)

Budget Requirement 2002/03

 

 

451.2

 

Variations in current MTFP

 

 

 

 

Pay/price increases

 

14.1

 

3% overall

Additional inflation

 

1.6

 

specified items

Demography

 

2.8

 

 

Capital financing costs

 

3.0

 

 

Policy & budget plans

 

 

 

 

Learning and Culture

5.3

 

 

 

Social & Health Care

0.3

 

 

 

Environment, Roads & Transport

-0.2

 

 

 

Community Safety

0.1

 

 

 

Corporate Governance

3.5

 

 

includes job evaluation & contact centre

Total

 

9.0

 

 

Use of reserves

 

-0.9

 

 

Other

 

1.0

 

 

Contingency

 

0.5

 

 

Total variations

 

 

31.1

 

Published forecast 2003/04

 

 

482.3

 

Further pressures

 

 

 

 

General Balances

 

4.0

 

one-off; restore to 1%

LG pay award

 

1.1

 

excl. education

National Insurance

 

1.8

 

 

Capital financing costs

 

0.3

 

 

Insurance premiums

 

0.5

 

post 11 Sept

Insurance fund

 

0.4

 

one-off

OCN project

 

1.0

 

one-off; known in Feb

OCN project

 

1.8

 

provisional

Corporate capacity/ICT/E Govt

 

1.5

 

provisional

Total

 

12.4

 

 

Service pressures

 

 

 

 

Learning & Culture

0.7

 

 

most included in unallocated policy & budget plans above

Social & Health Care

13.3

 

 

 

Environment, Roads & Transport

1.4

 

 

 

Community Safety

0.2

 

 

 

Corporate Governance

1.5

 

 

 

Total

 

17.1

 

 

Service savings

 

 

 

from summer meetings

Learning & Culture

-2.1

 

 

 

Social & Health Care

-0.3

 

 

 

Environment, Roads & Transport

-0.4

 

 

 

Community Safety

-0.1

 

 

 

Corporate Governance

-0.5

 

 

 

Total

 

-3.4

 

 

Total further pressures

 

 

26.1

 

Total forecast 2003/04

 

 

508.4

 

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