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ITEM EX7 - ANNEX 1 (a)

EXECUTIVE – 7 SEPTEMBER 2004

REVENUE BUDGET AND CAPITAL PROGRAMME 2005/06 – 2007/08

Assumptions Behind the Published MTFP

Specific Grants

  1. The 2004/05 budget includes specific grants totalling £122m as shown in Annex 1(b). We currently anticipate that the majority of this will continue but this needs to be kept under review.
  2. Efficiency Savings

  3. The MTFP assumes that we will make £5m of new cash releasing efficiency savings each year. In each year the contingency is dependent on making these efficiency savings.
  4. Income

  5. £73m income is included in the 2004/05 budget. This includes £31m of fees and charges for services, £19m contributions from the Health Authority and £11m for sales. The remainder relates to reimbursements and contributions and rents. The level of charges for services will be considered as part of the Review of Charges report later in the budget process and also as part of the efficiency savings exercise proposed later in this report.
  6. Formula Spending Share

  7. Total formula grant has been assumed to increase by 6.9% in 2005/06. This is based on a 5.9% increase in Education FSS, along with a 7.5% increase in children’s PSS. The increase for other FSS blocks was anticipated to be between 1%-3%.
  8. Inflation

  9. The MTFP allows for inflation at 2.5% on pay (excluding schools) and 2.0% on prices. School budgets, specific items and contracts where above average inflation applies have been allocated a higher base of 3.0%. Inflation above the 3% base is included in the total £12.8m for policy plans.
  10. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) – the government’s target measure for inflation – rose to 1.6% in June 2004, up from 1.5% in May. In the March 2004 Budget Statement the government said that the 2004/05 rate would be 1.75%, increasing to 2.0% from 2005/06 onwards.
  11. The Green Book pay award has now been agreed for the next three years. The settlement is for 2.75% from 1 April 2004, and 2.95% from 1 April 2005 and 2006. The 2006 rates may be subject to the retail price index at October 2005 and may change therefore will be notified nearer the time. It is estimated that the impact of the shortfall in inflation allocated to pay in 2004/05 is £245k. Directorates have been asked to absorb this pressure in 2004/05, but there will be an ongoing impact in 2005/06 and beyond, as the published plan only includes inflation of 2.5% on non – school pay budgets.
  12. Ongoing 2003/04 and 2004/05 Policy Plans

  13. The forecast allows for the ongoing effect of the policy plans agreed in 2003/04 and 2004/05. The £12.8m total breaks down by Directorate as follows:

Directorate

2003/04 Policy Plans

£m

2004/05 Policy Plans (*)

£m

Total

 

£m

Learning & Culture

-0.1

0.8

0.7

Social & Health Care

0.9

5.4

6.3

Environment & Economy

1.1

0.2

1.3

Community Safety

0.1

0.4

0.5

Resources (including Job Evaluation and Pension Fund Revaluation)

3.1

0.9

4.0

TOTAL

5.1

7.7

12.8

 

Annex 1(c) sets out the ongoing plans in detail, but the major items are as follows:

Directorate

Description

Extra spending in 2005/06

 

 

£m

L&C

Pupil Numbers: excess of clawback over-compensation

0.8

S&HC

Additional costs arising from the Homes for Older Persons contract

0.9

S&HC

Shortfall in the access and capacity grant in 2005/6

1.0

S&HC

Additional spending in 2004/5 for adult services funded from one-off measures

1.4

S&HC

Abnormal inflation for older services

1.3

S&HC

Extra resources to increase market capacity for adult services

1.7

E&E

Waste management: additional costs arising from the annual increase in landfill tax

0.8

Corporate

Extra costs of job evaluation in 2005/6

1.8

Corporate

Extra pension costs following the revaluation of the pension fund

2.4


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