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ITEM EX14

EXECUTIVE – 6 FEBRUARY 2002

CARTERTON AND WITNEY TO OXFORD PUBLIC TRANSPORT LINKS

Report by Director of Environmental Services

1. The main purpose of this report is to provide the Executive with details of a recent study looking at the feasibility of reinstating a passenger rail line from West Oxfordshire to Oxford. It also takes the opportunity to update the Executive on the latest situation with the A40 bus lane project, including details of the Government's response to the County Council's bid for funding.

Background to the Rail Study

2. In July 2001, the County Council and West Oxfordshire District Council jointly commissioned independent consultants to undertake an outline study looking into the feasibility of reopening the disused railway line between Brize Norton and Yarnton. The study followed an earlier resolution of the Public Transport Sub Committee, at the end of 2000, and was conducted by Mott MacDonald, a firm with a background in rail and public transport work.
3. The purpose of the study was to identify any significant physical constraints along the route and the capital costs and environmental implications associated with restoration of heavy rail and light rail options. Subsequently it was agreed that options involving the extension of the County Council's Oxford GTE (guided bus) scheme should also be included. It should be noted that this study was very much the first stage in the process in that it was limited to outline feasibility. This meant that the potential options were not developed in any detail and that the study did not investigate the more detailed cost and benefit issues. A copy of the consultants' report has been placed in the Members' Resource Centre. The consultants have also offered to present the conclusions of their study to a joint meeting of County and District Members. The District Council has offered to host the presentation at its offices in Witney.

Route Constraints

4. The railway line originally ran from the Cotswold Line junction at Yarnton, past Cassington, Eynsham and South Leigh to Witney and from there along the south side of the Brize Norton air base and on to Fairford in Gloucestershire. The consultants have undertaken a review of the Yarnton to Brize Norton route and have found several sections where the old alignment is now no longer available. The main obstacles to reinstatement of the old line are described in Annex 1. There are a number of sections of the route where property development or road construction over the last thirty years means that a modified alignment would be needed. The most significant problems, particularly for a heavy rail route, are to be found in the area between Witney and Ducklington (see Annex 1).

Identification of Options

5. The consultants have identified three broad options and a number of sub options which are described in detail in their report. A brief description of the options and their possible route alignments is provided in Annex 2. The routes are also shown on the attached plan. The feasibility of a heavy rail route has been assessed and the consultants have concluded that reinstatement, predominantly along the line of the old route, would not be viable. The reason for this is the problem of getting a heavy rail route across the A40 Witney bypass (which did not exist when the old railway line was still running) and in to Witney where an industrial estate is now built on the site of the old station. Similarly, there are huge engineering challenges and environmental costs associated with realigning the heavy rail route via a parkway station on the south side of the A40 Witney bypass near Ducklington (see Annex 2). These involve taking the line across a lake and the probable demolition of an hotel.

Light Rail/Tram Or Guided Bus?

6. The difficulties in taking a traditional heavy rail route into or close to Witney, have led the consultants to look at a number of alternative light rail/guided bus options which have the flexibility of on-street running. In addition, engineering design specifications for light rail/guided bus are less onerous (and implementation less costly) than heavy rail. In developing these options, the consultants have advised that if a new link to West Oxfordshire is to be progressed, it should be compatible with whatever system is developed to run the proposed Oxford GTE services between the Peartree and Redbridge park and ride sites. Clearly, it would not make sense to develop two separate systems that required passengers to interchange between each. There are also cost savings in combining the proposed Oxford system with a route out to West Oxfordshire.
7. The consultants have pointed to the pros and cons of the light rail and guided bus approaches. They argue that light rail vehicles have high capacity and in image terms are less like a bus, meaning that it may be easier to persuade motorists to switch mode. The consultants also point to the opportunities (subject to HMRI approval) for light rail vehicles to share heavy rail track on the approaches into Oxford. This could overcome some of the problems that are likely to arise with the Oxford GTE project which requires the construction of a separate guideway for buses alongside the rail lines.
8. The benefits of the guided bus approach are that it offers much greater flexibility in that the vehicles can leave the guideways and operate on street as conventional buses. The establishment of a guided bus network is less costly than the light rail equivalent. The vehicles may also be considerably cheaper, depending on whether they are simple conversions of conventional buses or very high specification vehicles.

Cost of Options

9. The consultants have produced broad estimates of the costs of implementing the range of options identified in their report (and summarised in Annex 2). The heavy rail option is estimated to cost £107m. The GTE (guided bus) option is estimated to cost around £45m for the infrastructure required between Witney and Oxford. An additional £6m is estimated for the necessary high specification rolling stock (less if the vehicles used are conventional buses with minor modifications). A further £23m is required for the proposed Oxford GTE link from Peartree to Redbridge (which until now has been progressed as a stand-alone project).
10. The Light Rail option is estimated to cost around £54m for the Witney to Oxford infrastructure with a further £12m for the rolling stock. The costs of a light rail system for Oxford (as an alternative to the proposed Oxford GTE system), are estimated to be £13m. This element is cheaper than the GTE equivalent because it relies upon light rail vehicles being able to use heavy rail track rather than the construction of guideways (although GTE has other advantages and there are doubts about the practicality of track sharing – see below).
11. In total, therefore, the GTE option (£74m combined cost including Oxford system) is marginally cheaper than the light rail option (£79m). Both options are cheaper than the most basic heavy rail option (avoiding Witney), however, the task of raising the necessary funding for either of the preferred options will clearly be considerable.

Officer Comments

12. It seems clear, even within the limited scope of an outline feasibility study, that there are very significant obstacles to the reintroduction of a heavy rail line, particularly along the section between Witney and Ducklington. On this basis, officers support the consultants’ conclusion that a heavy rail link would not be viable. The conclusion that light rail and guided bus options are worthy of more detailed study is also supported. Officers feel that the consultants may have underplayed the difficulties of trying to introduce on-street running of light rail vehicles within Witney. There would inevitably be implications for general traffic and the practicality of achieving this would need to be explored in much greater detail. Similarly, the joint use of light rail and heavy rail rolling stock on the same track (as the consultants have suggested for the Oxford end of the route) is an approach where the safety and capacity implications would need to be fully resolved. Both the guided bus and light rail options have implications for heavy rail capacity on the main line through Oxford which will need to be considered alongside the aspirations of the TOCs (Train Operating Companies).
13. The pros and cons of light rail, as opposed to GTE (Guided Bus) have been considered in the past in the early stages of the development of the Oxford GTE proposal. The image/capacity benefits of light rail compared with the flexibility of guided bus are issues that will need to be further considered within the context of more detailed study of West Oxfordshire to Oxford travel demands. It makes sense for any link to West Oxfordshire to be compatible with the system chosen for Oxford. One important point to bear in mind is that the consultants have been cautious about whether the population of West Oxfordshire and the related passenger demand, will be great enough to meet the costs of either a light rail or guided bus system. Further study will show whether the additional demand arising from the expected 25% growth in population of Witney and Carterton over the next decade, will be sufficient to make the economic case for a new link.

Procedures/Implementation Timescale

14. It should be emphasised that the procedures that need to be followed for this type of scheme mean that it will take a minimum of seven years, and typically at least a decade, before the facility is in place. The main stages in the process are set out in the consultants’ report. A crucial part of the process will be the need to secure significant Government grant through a major public transport scheme LTP bid. Government grant will only be forthcoming if it can be clearly demonstrated that the benefits, in terms of annual passenger revenues, reduced journey times and modal transfer, are sufficient to off-set the considerable costs. The consultants have pointed out that their outline feasibility study was not sufficiently detailed to be able to take a view on whether the potential patronage levels and other benefits are likely to be large enough for either the light rail or guided bus options to pass the economic tests.

Update on the Proposed A40 Bus Lane

15. A bid for a grant towards the cost of implementing the proposed £9.6m bus lane scheme was submitted to Government last July. The Government’s response to the bid was set out in the Local Transport Settlement, received in December. The Government did not approve funding for the bus lane scheme but requested that the bid should be re-submitted again this July. This was the same response as that received a year ago. The basis for the Government’s reluctance to approve the scheme appears to be lack of confidence in the appraisal material produced to support the bid. In particular, there is concern about the patronage projections that have been produced to underpin the economic case for the scheme. Even though our consultants, Babtie, argue that these projections are conservative, the Government’s economists would prefer to see evidence from similar schemes elsewhere to substantiate the forecasts. The problem for the scheme is that it would be the first of its kind so no such supporting information is available. A meeting with GOSE officials is to be held early in the New Year to discuss the additional appraisal information required for a submission in July this year.
16. This delay to progress on the bus lane scheme provides the opportunity to step back and review options for the A40 corridor, particularly in light of the rail study conclusions. The patronage base that would be required for the bus lane scheme would also be needed to support a segregated guided bus or light rail scheme from West Oxfordshire. In this sense the schemes would be in competition for funding. The advantage of the bus lane scheme is the fact that it could be implemented more quickly and at far less cost. A segregated guided bus or light rail scheme would offer the significant advantage of providing a comprehensive traffic-free route for both the outward and return journey. However, the implementation timescale for a guided bus or light rail option would be considerable and there is a risk that the economic case for either will not be strong enough to secure the necessary funding.

  Next Steps

17. One way forward, bearing in mind the different implementation timescales for the bus lane scheme and the guided bus/light rail scheme, might be to modify the bus lane scheme so that it can link into a segregated guided bus or light rail route at a later stage. The section of the A40 over which an on-line bus lane or guideway can be provided before going off-line, to utilise sections of the old railway line, will need to be assessed. This work could form part of a wider review of options for the A40 corridor.
18. It is proposed that the review should also include looking at the possibility of a new highway link, from the A40 to the A34, as part of the package of measures. This scheme is identified in the County Council’s Structure Plan and could provide motorists heading for the A44, A34, M40 and beyond with a link that avoids the congested A40 Wolvercote Roundabout. The costs and benefits of this scheme as part of a wider package would need to be fully assessed.
19. It is suggested that officers should undertake this broad review of the options for improving transport links and report back to the Executive later in the year. Following the review, the Executive will need to decide whether a bid for the existing or modified A40 bus lane scheme should be submitted this summer and whether consultants should be commissioned to develop more detailed alternative or compatible proposals for the A40 corridor. The consultants could be required to undertake their work on further proposals in time for the results to be incorporated in the July 2003 Annual Progress Report.

Financial and Staff Implications

20. This report has identified the significant costs involved in developing a guided bus or light rail link from West Oxfordshire. A very robust case would be needed to secure the necessary Government grant. The task of raising the required funding is made more difficult by the fact that developer contributions associated with the substantial housing growth in Carterton and Witney over the next decade are largely already committed.
21. The costs of undertaking a more detailed study to support a bid to Government are significant. It may be that the most cost-effective way of commissioning the work would be through the Council’s transport planning term consultants who are shortly to be appointed to conduct the Transport Networks Review. The A40 corridor review could be made their first priority. Additional work on the appraisal material needed to support a revised package of measures would, however, require additional consultancy fees during 2002/03 if a modified submission is to be made in July 2003.
22. More detailed work on the light rail and guided bus schemes (and an A40/A34 link road) involving more precise identification of the alignment for these routes could have blight implications. This could potentially result in claims under the Land Compensation Act.

RECOMMENDATIONS

23. The Executive is RECOMMENDED to:

1. endorse the findings of the consultants’ report that the reinstatement of a heavy rail link along the disused rail line between Brize Norton and Yarnton would not be viable but that options involving either a GTE (Guided Bus) or Light Rail system are worthy of more detailed study;
2. welcome the consultants’ offer of a joint presentation of the study findings to interested County and District Members at the District Council offices in Witney and ask officers to make the arrangements;
3. ask officers, in light of the Government’s response to the bid for the proposed A40 bus lane, to undertake a broad review of the short and longer term options for improving transport links between West Oxfordshire and Oxford, including the possible incorporation of the guided bus or light rail proposals identified by the consultants and to report back with preliminary recommendations within four months; and
4. continue with preparation of the A40 bus lane scheme to provide the opportunity of a resubmission to the DTLR in July 2002 for the current or modified scheme, dependent on the outcome of the further review.

DAVID YOUNG
Director of Environmental Services

Background Papers: Mott MacDonald report

Contact Officers: Mark Jarman telephone: 01865 815094

January 2002