Meeting documents
Children's Services Scrutiny Committee
Tuesday, 10 July 2007
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Sixth Form Secondary Roll Pupils from new housing New Housing Mature Housing Grand Total Note:q Forecasts beyond 2020 are very vulnerable to assumptions about mature development and especially out migration. project period used.X The new housing generates new children once within this model, in the year of completionB 2005 occupancy survey of recently occupied housing in Oxfordshire.K The rates were applied at detailed age, bedroom and tenure type level then I summarised to provided overall age based generation rates. We recognise B these rates as reasonable from many years of planning new schools.V Two versions of the overall pupil growth resulting from new housing have been producedL numbers as they age annually through the model. Rather than simply subtractH to each annual year group transition. This has greater effect when the S transitions are relatively large. This reduction (or defrayment) factor can have aZ The length of the projection period demands that we consider the longer term effect of theK development and its propensity to reach a steady state in the same way selfG contained communities develop, supporting a secondary school whose rollT We decided that new housing would be classed as mature, five years after completion.G When a tranche of housing becomes mature the only way it can produce a O a range of pupils of different ages is by housing turnover. To do this pupils H should be removed from the model to reflect the change of occupation in H a household. We therefore decided that this process of housing turnoverK should be regarded as zero-sum and that the only growth we would consider X To estimate the generation of new births we look to the 2001 Census for Oxfordshire and N calculate the numbers of 0 year olds per household at the Census. By applyingN this generation rate to the tranches of new housing we create a pupil profile I way out of the system. This has little or no impact on the maximum roll ' reached by the new housing generation. U The model is in two clear parts, new and mature housing, because of the long elapsed J The generation rates have been taken from Margaret Melling's comprehensiveK In our experience new developments suffer slight "defrayment" of the pupil A will fluctuate gently, but will be sustainable by that community.V from the mature housing would arise from new births. Children moving in would replace children moving out.D which boosts the roll as the new generation has started to work its / Transitions of each year group are not reduced. Sixth Form Transfer Rates FtoL LtoU WantageD The grand total shows the secondary roll at about 580 at its peak. " The peak primary roll is about 465 These are called A and BM a token pupil from each transition we have applied a reduction factor of 0.990 considerable impact on the final roll figures. > The grand total shows the secondary roll as 728 at its peak. The peak primary roll is 712 Bedroom Mix A B Great Western Park Bedrooms Social Private Total A Total B 4+ Phasing Year dwellings4 1 50 (2007) 2 150 3 400 4 425 5 425 6 425 7 375 8 375 9 3778 9+ 198 (2015 onwards) 3200\ The housing composition and generation rates resulting from that have been derived from the Didcot scenario. A. 2500 houses to 2021 B. 3400 houses by 2026ÿ Z Œ è h H È Í M < ¼ ¢ " ù y
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